Sunday, November 9, 2008

Analysis and Aftermath

There are some great post-election pieces being written. Analysis of what happened and the pictures painted of the crumbling walls of the GOP.

The final map is really interesting. MSNBC breaks down the results by county, so we can drill down the results and see that Obama (Democrats) won everywhere that there is a higher population (cities). This is not so different, Democrats typically win cities, but Obama won many cities in very red states, like Wyoming and Montana. In addition, the Democrats are reaching out into the suburbs, overtaking what was once a GOP stronghold.

I think that the suburbs are fed-up with the partisanship and the extreme focus of the GOP on social issues. Suburban folks just want to be able to pay their bills, most don't care if the neighbor kid has an abortion, if there are (what was previously thought of as 'minorities' - demographics are changing and in another generation 'whites' will be the minority) living down the street or if a gay couple owns the home in the next cul-de-sac. Middle class people are less able to be divided by those GOP social issues; because they care more about having cable and getting the next generation TV, than they do this wedge issue crap. I think that the new “Republicans” are more libertarian than social conservatives and I don’t think that the GOP has figured that out.

It is also interesting to look at the margins. As of 10:01 am PT, Obama won the election 53% to 46%. He won by 7,974,965 votes. This is an amazing mandate, but what is also incredible to think about is how close many of the states not won were. When I look at some of the closer races, if we had gotten another few thousand people to the polls, Obama would have won those states too. This is an amazing factoid.

The young voters, despite popular mythology, were not necessarily the ones who carried the Obama victory. The demographics are interesting. Obama won every single demographic, except for whites, but even that margin was greater than Kerry.

*61 percent of Obama's votes came from white voters; 90 percent of McCain's came from white voters.
*23 percent of Obama's votes came from black voters; only one percent of McCain's came from African American voters.
*Latino voters accounted for 11 percent of Obama's vote and six percent of McCain's.
*Twenty-three percent of the Obama voters were under age 30 but only 13 percent of McCain backers were.

The demographic analysis in the article is interesting; they approach it asking "what if" certain blocks did not vote.

I love this. Obama has been going over Bush's executive orders and signing statements and is preparing to reverse some of the most egregious crap in his first days in office. Anything that can be reversed by his signature - he is already lining up the papers to sign them. Right. Fucking. On.

"A team of four dozen advisers, working for months in virtual solitude, set out to identify regulatory and policy changes Obama could implement soon after his inauguration."

This makes me smile.

The Christian Right is suffering from Borderline Personality Disorder. The treatments for this disease are intense and success rates are minimal. Perhaps we will find an end to the Religious Fanatics having so much of an impact on our politics.

Some, the old school Godbots, want to dig in their heels deeper, and focus harder on the wedge issues of god, guns, gays and controlling women and their bodies. The newer evangelicals are actually reading their Bibles and discovering that Jesus actually cared more about the poor and the planet, (because the planet's health affects all people,) than He did giving onto Caesar God's law. We shall see which direction they go, but I suspect that they will just implode into a million different pieces - some more tolerable than others.

The Right Wing extremists are freaking the fuck out. They really do not know what to do except to continue to spew lies and mistruths and half-facts and fear.

The thing is that that kind of crap just does not work on people who are really afraid, of real things.

I am going to counter a theory that I proposed earlier: that people who are insecure because of uncertainty and instability are more apt to believe conspiracy theories. I do not necessarily think that this is incorrect; I just think that the Right Wing's plan to keep people too busy and so uneducated that they do not have time to pay attention to the truth of a situation has backfired on them.

I think that the far Right's BS has not only hit the lower class in such large numbers that they do not have the time to pay attention to Rush and Hannity's crap - it has also spread to the middle class in such a way that the people are so worried about paying their bills and making ends meet that they do not have the energy to worry about whatever extremist bile that Rush and Hannity are selling. It backfired. For this I am grateful.

Eleanor's article really does not say anything much different than we have all been talking about since Tuesday; really I linked to it because I love her Newsweek photo. She looks fabulous in the photo and I just thought people should see it.

(PS: There is not any more...not even any photos of journalists that I think are better than their real life look. Clicking the "read more" will just lead to the many thousands of comments that my blogging generates...heh.)


L said...

The Meming of Life (on secular parenting and other natural wonders) has a post forecasting new political divisions, specifically that a New Republican Party merges with Libertarians, and cautions those on the left to avoid a wholesale aversion to all things "Republican."

As a homeschool parent who does it for a thousand reasons other than religious ones, I am watching the aftermath's impact on other independent educators with a mixture of amusement and horror. The libertarian-leaners and free-thinkers have been fractured into the parents excited to have Obama in the White House and the Annie-get-your-gun-head-for-the-hills-before-we're-all-communists parents. The gap becomes very obvious when religion comes into play.

Anjha said...

I, thank you so much for stopping by. All morning I have been on "Meming of Life" and researching his books, etc.

Fabulous website.

Thank you for linking to it...just another place that I will have to read every day!

idiosynchronic said...

Thank you for that link, Ms.?. Mr. McGowan puts an actual title on those whom I would call Blue Shirts - the Christian American Party. No, they don't exist yet, but I think it's just a matter of time.

However, I strongly doubt that the Republican Party will either give way to another 2nd Party or split into two relevant parties. The last party replacement happened in the 1850's, 130 years ago. Since then, both parties have entrenched themselves through laws and ballot access. We still settle elections by plurality win, rather than majority or coalition government. Money is still going to the Republicans nationally. And Democrats have vested interest in keeping the Republicans intact - if the GOP splits, why should the Liberal or Progressive wing stay, or why should the conservative Blue Dogs (to name only one faction) stay in the Democratic Party?

I don't disagree that politics needs a real shake-up, but it seems very unlikely to happen.

Last - I'm not one of Elanor Clift's fans. She's an enabler for John McLaughlin and not a very good 'left' spokesperson to boot. She's not a very insightful journalist either. It's too bad that her photo which is a great smiling portrait, got photoshopped to death.

Anjha said...

Last - I'm not one of Elanor Clift's fans. She's an enabler for John McLaughlin and not a very good 'left' spokesperson to boot.

We watch McLaughlin Group every Sunday morning because it is hillarious. As a result, whenever we are having a lively discussion or we inadvertantly bump into each other we yell, in Eleanor's voice, "excuse me, EXCUSE ME!"

If you don't watch McLauglin it is not very funny, probably only an inside joke...but that is what I think of when I think of Eleanor. So, her pic in Newsweek is such a contrast that I had to link to it.

Id, I guess you had to be there...

snark said...

I love The McLaughlin Group.

High farce at it's best.

idiosynchronic said...

I used to love watching The MG - but my enthusiasm has dampened considerably since Tony Blankley left and was replaced by Monica Crowley. She's everything Ann Coulter wishes to be without Ann's comic lack of self-awareness. As of late, John's also been stacking the deck in the guest spot with limp conservatives like Kondrake, Zuckerman or Barone. This week it was Clarence Page . . eh . .

I'll watch Inside Washingtona every week though, just for Charles Krauthammer and Nina Totenberg sparring.